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December 17, 2023
by Pete Brown, Detroit Workers’ Voice
After two and a half years of struggle against the military junta, democratic forces in Myanmar have made important gains in the last couple months since the start of Operation 1027. The operation, so-named because it began on October 27, was launched as a cooperative effort of democratic anti-junta forces together with various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) which have previously stood aside from the struggle. Forging a united front between these forces has been an important goal of the anti-junta movement, and it appears that, at least for a time, that goal has been achieved. The result: a rapid series of military victories and the further isolation of the junta, as it tries to gather enough forces to avoid being overthrown.
Various EAOs have been operating in Myanmar for decades, agitating
for autonomy for different ethnic groups like the Karen, the Chin, and
the Rohingya. At various times the Burmese military was able to bribe
these groups to avoid military conflict and settle down, more or less,
to a centralized system. But the military absolutely refused to
recognize the Rohingya as Burmese citizens, and hunted them down and
tried to force them all over the border into India and Thailand. This
genocidal policy toward a minority made other ethnic groups wary of
striking up a warm friendship with the Burmese military. And the fact
that Aung San Suu Kyi’s government went along with the military’s
policy toward the Rohingya made other ethnic groups distrustful of the
civilian government as well. When Suu Kyi’s government was overthrown
by the military in February 2021, many EAOs adopted a standoffish
policy and did not join the anti-junta struggle. Not that they
supported the Burmese military; but they were satisfied with standing
firm in their home areas and waiting to see what would happen.
The military’s savage repression of the democratic opposition taught a lesson to anti-junta forces in the urban areas of Myanmar. They learned what it was like to be targeted by the military just like the ethnic groups in rural areas had been targeted for decades. This made them more receptive to the demands of ethnic groups for autonomy. As a result, in 2022 the National Unity Government, the opposition’s government-in-exile, adopted a new interim constitution for a post-junta Myanmar. This proposed constitution explicitly called for a federalist system with autonomy for the ethnic groups and recognition of anyone born in Myanmar as a citizen, including Rohingyas. This helped pave the way toward establishing a united front with the EAOs in the struggle against the junta.
This new united front organized a joint military offensive that struck the junta’s forces beginning on October 27. Immediately 15 armed outposts of the military were captured. Soon one district capital was captured, and one state capital was surrounded and besieged. (1) Anti-junta forces have taken over frontier areas that border China, and in some cases have established friendly relations with the Chinese by turning over to them cybercriminals that operate in those areas. This could be an important step in further isolating the junta regime internationally. Opposition forces in the border area are led by the Brotherhood Alliance, a military alliance of three EAOs. Another joint operation in the northern state of Sagaing has seized a number of towns, including at last report the town of Maw Luu. This operation is a joint effort by the Kachin Independence Army, an EAO of the Kachin people, together with the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front and the Indaw People’s Defense Force. The takeover of this town was prepared by announcing to local government and police forces that they should immediately join the civil disobedience movement against the government; otherwise they would be regarded as the enemy. Thus, the regime was undermined ahead of time. When the attack came a few days later, the local military was completely isolated and quickly wiped out. (2)
By staging joint military operations in different parts of the country, the democratic opposition has sent the junta’s forces scrambling around trying to hold things together. The junta’s military is short of forces due to men being killed and wounded and also because of desertions. Recently the military announced an amnesty for deserters if they would simply return to their posts and resume soldiering for the regime. But many soldiers are sick of being cannon fodder; many are fleeing across the border or joining the resistance. The junta recognizes that they cannot maintain control over large swaths of rural areas, so they are hunkering down in the cities, setting up barricades and preparing for assaults on the urban areas. It will be difficult to attack them there, since they have armored units, with tanks, and the opposition forces mostly rely on rifles. In rural areas, opposition forces can outmaneuver the army, but the junta controls the air. At Maw Luu, for instance, after the town was captured by the opposition, the junta carried out airstrikes on the town which flattened and destroyed buildings and forced the residents to flee. Maw Luu is still liberated, but for now it’s a ghost town. Across the country, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by airstrikes just since October 27, and hundreds of civilians killed. (3)
Opposition forces need more powerful weapons, including anti-aircraft weapons, to advance their struggle. Politically, the major step toward forging a united anti-junta front has been made. This will be important as the movement edges toward victory over the junta.
1. Mark Leon Goldberg, “The military junta may soon be defeated in Myanmar’s civil war”, UN Dispatch, December 11, 2023.
2. Hein Htoo Zan, “Myanmar resistance forces seize fourth Sagaing town”, The Irrawaddy, December 13, 2023.
3. “Civilians targeted as Myanmar junta crumbles: Brotherhood Alliance”, The Irrawaddy, December 14, 2023.
Picture: Denouncing the military junta: https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/h_57429798.jpg?resize=770%2C513&quality=80.
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